Harms' NFL Picks

[Harms]

I'm back and have sometime to do this. I will do this weeks games available for betting.

Bills +6.5 vs. Redskins

This is a tricky game since the whole Taylor situation. I'm inclined to say take the points and bet Bills. I liked the Bills earlier this season, but they got destroyed by the Pats and looked horrible against the Jags. I can't see the tide turning for them with the fire I'm sure the Redskins will have coming into this game. However, the Redskins haven't been blowing people away considering they have lost their last 3. Take the points with the Bills. It should be closer than a touchdown.

Pick Bills

Jags +7 vs. Colts

I like the Jags. The Colts blew them out at Jacksonville earlier in the year. I think since this has division champ written all over it the Jags will come out firing. I see a close one that the Colts pull out.

Pick take the points Jags, bet the over

Jets vs. Dolphins +1

I think this is the game the Dolphins win. The Jets have been miserable and the Dolphins are due for a win.

Pick take the Dolphins and the under

Chargers vs. Chiefs (+ 6.5)

The Chargers look like they are back and the Chiefs are going the wrong way after they blew out the Chargers earlier. I see the Chargers winning and covering.

Pick give the points bet Chargers, stay away from the over/under
Browns vs. Cardinals (+1)

Not sure how the Browns only give a point in this game. Seems to be a no-brainer. This would be my lock of the week. I watched the Browns beat the snot out of my Texans last week and this one should be easier.

Pick Browns, take the over

Giants vs. Bears (+2)

The Bears have beaten people they should and lose to people they should. I'm inclined to say the Bears will lose this game. However, since Manning has been so sketchy this season, this is probably the toughest game to call on the schedule. I think Manning may bounce back after the embarrassing performance last game.

Pick Giants, stay away from the over/under

Bengals (+7) vs. Steelers
Steelers should win this pretty easily. I see a blow out happening.

Pick Steelers and the over

[opsy]

Thanks dude, points coming if I win ;p

[The-Iceman-Chuck-Liddell]

I agree with all besides Jags over Colts, Giants over Steelers, and Dolphins over Jets.

[Snow Patrol]

Originally Posted by The-Iceman-Chuck-Liddell

I agree with all besides Jags over Colts, Giants over Steelers, and Dolphins over Jets.

Giants over Bears I presume?

Thanks for the analysis Harms.

[The-Iceman-Chuck-Liddell]

Originally Posted by Snow Patrol

Giants over Bears I presume?

Thanks for the analysis Harms.

Thank you for the correction Snow Patrol lol

[CounterPuncher]

Thanks Harms, I think I agree with every pick. But I always stay away from the over/under betting anyway, because I always seem to lose if I bet on one.

[Harms]

Originally Posted by CounterPuncher

Thanks Harms, I think I agree with every pick. But I always stay away from the over/under betting anyway, because I always seem to lose if I bet on one.

So do I, it is just so tempting. I guess I'll never learn.

[MuStAnG12687]

I also felt the Jets/Dolphins game would go the under...who would have knew the Jets would have spanked the Dolphins like that...I figured a win, but not like that...fun game to watch, got to love turnovers!

[Harms]

Well, I went 5-2 against the spread this week. Should be 6-2 (Mon. night game is still on but looks like the Ravens will cover), but I didn't make a prediction with the Pats/Ravens. The spread is rough and for all who complain about it, you can blame me cause I was the one who made the case to Jras about getting rid of the money line and going spread only. Betting the spread is really hard and there is a reason you hear guys screaming on the radio about what calling them for their advice. It is hard to be correct in the picks. If I can go 5-2 every week, I'd be extremely happy. Now if only I could stay away from the dam over/under line. Here is a tip for it though, if you see me bet the over/under line, do the opposite. I rarely seem to get it right.

[MuStAnG12687]

Originally Posted by Harms

Well, I went 5-2 against the spread this week. Should be 6-2 (Mon. night game is still on but looks like the Ravens will cover), but I didn't make a prediction with the Pats/Ravens. The spread is rough and for all who complain about it, you can blame me cause I was the one who made the case to Jras about getting rid of the money line and going spread only. Betting the spread is really hard and there is a reason you hear guys screaming on the radio about what calling them for their advice. It is hard to be correct in the picks. If I can go 5-2 every week, I'd be extremely happy. Now if only I could stay away from the dam over/under line. Here is a tip for it though, if you see me bet the over/under line, do the opposite. I rarely seem to get it right.

I'm glad you told Jras to go to the spread. Yes, it is much harder and it would be good to be above .500 in picking against the spread, but now I get to enjoy the games by not having all of my FF wealth on the Patriots every week ...last night was one of those games that you love to see...got to love the NFL

[bayouboy]

Originally Posted by Harms

Well, I went 5-2 against the spread this week. Should be 6-2 (Mon. night game is still on but looks like the Ravens will cover), but I didn't make a prediction with the Pats/Ravens. The spread is rough and for all who complain about it, you can blame me cause I was the one who made the case to Jras about getting rid of the money line and going spread only. Betting the spread is really hard and there is a reason you hear guys screaming on the radio about what calling them for their advice. It is hard to be correct in the picks. If I can go 5-2 every week, I'd be extremely happy. Now if only I could stay away from the dam over/under line. Here is a tip for it though, if you see me bet the over/under line, do the opposite. I rarely seem to get it right.

Last night's game is exactly why I wish we still had the money line. If people picked NE to win by 21 then they sure would have picked them just to win. Can you imagine the points put on NE last night if there just a money line and all the points that would have been lost if they would have lost (which almost happened.)

To me there was more excitment with the money line because people were putting more points on the game. So instead of seeing 1 mil. plus there was like 90k.

[Harms]

I'll try and make my predictions tonight if I'm not too drunk after the Hatton/Mayweather fight.

[opsy]

please do, since most of these games are set in stone (so to speak) of who is going to win, the point spread becomes very tricky.

[Harms]

First, I would like to thank Twigz for being generous enough to give me seed points since I had a Black Sat./Sun. last week. It won't be forgotten.

I had a horrendous week last week, so I decided to revive my picks thread to give me some better luck. Let's get started.

Seahawks +8.5 vs. Packers

I find it hard to believe pretty much all the lines this week. I'm inclined to take the underdog on all the games, but don't worry I won't. The Seahawks impressed the hell out of me last week. Great aggressive defense and a consistent offense. The Packers I just can't get sold on. Farve is having a magical season, but if you look at their roster you woneer how they are doing it. They played in one of the weaker divisions and had an easier schedule. I think the bubble will burst for the cheeseheads this weekend.

My pick: Take the points and the Seahawks
Seahawks 24 Packers 21

Jags +13.5 vs Patriots

Yes, the Pats went undefeated while playing the best teams in the NFL. I'm a hater though, so I would love to see them lose. I will say this whole scenario reminds me alot of the 2006 Rose Bowl where all the talking heads said that USC was the best college football team ever. Then they lose to a mobile QB and a strong defense. The Ravens, Giants, and Eagles all have shown the Jags the game plan to beat the Pats. The Jags could be the team to do it (but I won't be picking the Jags to win the game). This is the trickiest game this week. The Pats of the beginning of the year would have probably doubled the spread, but I don't think the Pats we see today will cover. However, all that being said, I'm not picking against the Pats.

My pick: give the points and bet the Pats
Patriots 38 Jaguars 20

Chargers +9.5 vs. Colts

Let's get serious. This should be a blow out. Nothing the Chargers did made me think that they will keep it close. Should be a nice setup for the big rematch of Colts vs. Pats.

My pick: Give the points and bet the Colts
Colts 44 Chargers 17
Giants +7.5 vs Cowboys

Interesting game. Its a high number especially considering it is a divisional rivalry. However, the Cowboys have beaten the Giants by 10 and 11 in both games. People talk about how the Cowboys haven't beaten the Giants 3 times blah, blah, blah. I see the Cowboys sticking it the Giants. Romo should torch the Giants and whatever you say about TO, he comes up big in big games. As much as it pains me to say, I think we may see the Cowgirls make their way to the Super Bowl.

My pick: give the points take the Cowboys
Cowboys 34 Giants 21

[MuStAnG12687]

It's really odd to have such a bad spell with the spread over the past 2 weeks considering that flipping a coin on all the games (against the spread) this year ended up like 20 games over .500 on a web site...good luck next week

[The-Iceman-Chuck-Liddell]

Any views on the upcoming games Harms and Mustang?

[arelius]

this is funny

[Harms]

Originally Posted by MuStAnG12687

It's really odd to have such a bad spell with the spread over the past 2 weeks considering that flipping a coin on all the games (against the spread) this year ended up like 20 games over .500 on a web site...good luck next week

Perhaps I am overthinking it. It is much easier during the year cause of such bad performances by bad teams. The playoffs get a little trickier since the teams are so much better an much more evenly matched. Yeah, I've been getting killed. It is alot easier to go back and second guess. That is why it is a severe no-no for radio stations to rebroadcast the handicapper shows after the games.

Chargers (+13.5) vs. Patriots
Patriots haven't covered a spread in weeks since the spread shot up astronomically on them every week. The Chargers are out for revenge from last years playoff loss. I'm assuming they will keep it close. Of course, you might want to bet against my pick the way I've been going lately.

Pick Take the Chargers and the points
Patriots 33 Chargers 27

[arelius]

Originally Posted by Harms

Perhaps I am overthinking it. It is much easier during the year cause of such bad performances by bad teams. The playoffs get a little trickier since the teams are so much better an much more evenly matched. Yeah, I've been getting killed. It is alot easier to go back and second guess. That is why it is a severe no-no for radio stations to rebroadcast the handicapper shows after the games.

Chargers (+13.5) vs. Patriots
Patriots haven't covered a spread in weeks since the spread shot up astronomically on them every week. The Chargers are out for revenge from last years playoff loss. I'm assuming they will keep it close. Of course, you might want to bet against my pick the way I've been going lately.

Pick Take the Chargers and the points
Patriots 33 Chargers 27

I have a feeling San Diego will cover the spread also, but I am thinking one thing. It is a bitter cold bitch, they are playing in open stadium. I think the score is going under the posted total of 47. We are looking at a lot of dropped passes and fumbles today. 10-32 degrees is one thing, when that temp drops to below 10 the story goes different. I think if this is to be a high scoring game, the running game will be intricate. I am just not sure if Brady's passing game will be a big influence today.

I guess we will see.

[The-Iceman-Chuck-Liddell]

Originally Posted by arelius

I have a feeling San Diego will cover the spread also, but I am thinking one thing. It is a bitter cold bitch, they are playing in open stadium. I think the score is going under the posted total of 47. We are looking at a lot of dropped passes and fumbles today. 10-32 degrees is one thing, when that temp drops to below 10 the story goes different. I think if this is to be a high scoring game, the running game will be intricate. I am just not sure if Brady's passing game will be a big influence today.

I guess we will see.

Good looking out bro. Harms and Mustang. What is your superbowl winner? point scores etc...